(In collaboration with Termometro Politico)
The agreement on Iran’s nuclear energy was signed in Lausanne that should be definitive by next June and will allow Iran to produce energy for civilian purposes, to dismantle part of research and development locations (considered crucial for the creation of a powerful nuclear plant), to cease enriching uranium above 5%, to prohibit the installation of new spin dryer and the building of new enrichment plants, and allow IAEA inspectors to enter Natanz and Fordow every day.
In the last case, it will be possible to control the activity and report news about the reactor at Arak, whose fuel production has been prohibited. Moreover, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany will respect the interruption of the sanctions which have been imposed on Iran on the nuclear power for the next 6 months.
IRAN NUCLEAR ENERGY: THE REACTION OF THE SUNNI MONARCHIES
The agreement, which re-establishes the role of Iran as an actor and a partner in the Middle Eastern region, has produced many different reactions in the international arena. The Sunni monarchies did not reject the Treaty of Lausanne. However, they asked for more guarantees against some of the most evident behaviors of Iran in the last few years.
For example, the alliance with Bashar al-Assad, the training of the forces of Hamas on the Gaza Strip, the black market with Western countries and all Iran’s political strategies which until now have jeopardized its imagine on the world scenario. The reaction of Israel was very strong. It reported the lack of ability of the “5+1” group to defend the country by the Iranian power which may represent a serious danger for the Israeli security.
IRAN NUCLEAR ENERGY: THE ISRAELI RESPONSE
In the last few days, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has raised many questions to the United States in order to review the agreement of April 3rd that, according to Netanyahu, “started nuclear bombs”. He said “the agreement does not prohibit any nuclear plant in Iran, it does not dismantle any spin dryer and will not stop the development and the research on advanced spin dryer”.
Moreover, according to the Prime Minister of Israel, the nuclear plant that Iran will develop in the next few years will allow the country to strengthen its own political role and military position through the creation of the nuclear bomb. Netanyahu also asked that “any final agreement with Iran will include a clear and unambiguous recognition of Israel’s right to exist”.
IRAN NUCLEAR ENERGY: THE NEW BALANCE OF THE MIDDLE EAST
Netanyahu’s criticism at the Treaty of Lausanne reflects his worries about the possible consequences. The President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, answered that Iran will not occupy any other country and that it has accepted to ratify a non-proliferation additional protocol to the Treaty. It will allow the United Nations to inspect the suspected plants without notice.
Even though the new treaty is not defined yet, it allows Iran to play an important role in the new international scenario. It will help the Iranian economic recovery and the creation of new political alliances. It will be possible to redistribute the leadership among the Gulf countries, jeopardizing the dominant position of Saudi Arabia. However, the new alliances might contribute to the resolution of the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and, above all, they might reshape the diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States. Therefore, even the international role of Israel might depend on these possible scenarios.